Citação de estudo do The Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) "European Monetarian Union under stress", de 10 de Fevereiro de 2009, na parte respeitante a Portugal:
"The country’s banking system loan book exposure is amongst the highest in the region with a domestic private debt to GDP of 150%. The Portuguese banking sector has also a significant exposure to emerging economies in particular to Eastern Europe (a loan book of 10% of GDP) and Latin America (6% of GDP). While significant, these exposures are not the highest of the euro area. As a result, our estimated loss for the Portuguese banking sector of a little more than 10% of GDP sits broadly in the middle of the loss distribution amongst member countries.
The banking sector funding position ranks 8th, so it is towards the bottom of the group. This reflects a relatively high domestic funding gap and heavy reliance on international interbank lending.
Public sector exposure on the debt front does not stand out as of particularly noteworthy when compared to other member countries.
The sectoral balances penalise heavily the ranking of Portugal. The non financial corporate sector is running a huge net borrowing position of close to 8% of GDP.This is a key factor behind the very large current account deficit that the country has had for more than 10 years. The deterioration of the fiscal balance will likely result in a further deterioration in external accounts.
The maturity profile of the country’s debt by sectors shows a relatively high reliance on short term funding. This reliance is evenly spread across sectors.
Portugal: financial fragility indicator - subindices:
2005 --- 2008/2009
Household debt 67.18 --- 79.94
Corporate Debt 59.04 --- 69.34
Developing countries 13.42 --- 21.66
Potential losses --- 11.70
Domestic loans/deposits 1.33 --- 1.39
Foreign funding 24.37 --- 40.92
Public debt 63.57 --- 69.00
Current account balance -9.81 --- -11.05
Portugal current account position implies painful adjustments".
Source: RBS
