Nós os CRICs

"The most insoluble is Europe. It has faithfully followed Robert Feldman’s CRIC cycle: crisis, response, improvement, complacency. The European Central Bank bought the euro zone valuable time with its long-term loans to banks earlier this year; that time has been wasted. This is hardly a novel observation, but Greece isn’t about Greece; the euro zone can survive without it (the reverse is not necessarily true).  Whether it can survive a sudden and disorderly departure that precipitates runs on banks throughout the periphery is another matter. To fireproof the euro zone, most everyone outside Germany thinks euro members should share responsibility for each other’s banks (via common deposit insurance) and sovereign debt (via Eurobonds). Germany has refused to countenance this, and presumably won’t until Greece is in the process of leaving the euro. The optimists are convinced that Germany will bend if that’s the price of saving the euro. What they may not appreciate is that there is no single “Germany” to nod his head when some line is crossed; the country is a mosaic of competing power bases who may not coalesce around a solution in time to save the region. Odds of a good outcome: 60%". Food for thought no Free Exchange (The Economist) de hoje. Para a "periphery", nós incluídos, 60% é excessivo, claro. Luis Miguel Novais